It is still not clear how the global economy will play out. There are signs that the worst has passed, and that fiscal and monetary policy almost everywhere is strongly supportive.. However, even if COVID-19 is contained--a big if given recent experience in the U.S. and elsewhere--further progress is more likely to be gradual and possibly interrupted by new outbreaks, rather than a quick V-shaped recovery.

The latest forecasts for the global economic outlook are pointing to gradual recovery, and growth assets have improved from their previous coronavirus losses but Investors will need to be realistic about the time it will take to get back to pre-outbreak conditions.

Local and international markets have marked time in recent weeks as investors wait to see how the coronavirus outbreak will develop and what its ultimate impact will be. On the plus side, with supportive economic policies that have been put in place and anti-COVID-19 measures like lockdowns and distancing, it is plausible that we are at or near the low point for the global economic cycle.

While forecasters are typically running with a range of scenarios, most agree that their baseline or best-guess scenario is for a serious setback to world trade and gross domestic product this year, followed by a recovery next year. The shape and speed of the recovery remains very uncertain, however, with fund managers inclined to believe it may be a more gradual affair rather than a rapid return to normality.